Climate Change-Induced Drought and Its Role in Nepal's Forest Fires

The southern Himalayan slopes are increasingly experiencing dry winters, posing significant challenges to water resources and agriculture. These conditions have intensified forest fires in Nepal, mainly driven by human activities such as unattended campfires, discarded cigarettes, and arson. A warmer and drier climate exacerbates the spread of these fires, causing severe air pollution and accelerating snow and glacier melt due to black carbon deposition in the Himalayas. Recent forest fire events, particularly in 2021 and 2024, were ten times higher than the long-term average, fueled by extended post-monsoon droughts. Climate models (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) project worsening winter droughts, leading to an increased frequency and intensity of forest fires throughout the 21st century. Our study, based on observational, remote sensing, and climate model data, highlights climate variability and climate change-induced droughts as primary drivers of these fires. Projections indicate that persistent droughts will elevate wildfire risks and degrade air quality, posing severe threats to public health, ecosystems, and the economy. This presentation will discuss historical trends and future projections of forest fires, emphasizing their impact on regional air quality, as fire smoke can travel hundreds of kilometers.