A closer look at flood risk and future perspectives after changes in climate, hydrology and society

Recent research has marked an interesting step forward in our knowledge of floods, the way they occur and hit communities, and our capability to predict them. New data availability and the advent of new methods, notably those based on artificial intelligence, convey exciting perspective to cope with floods in the future. At the same time, new solutions are emerging, spanning from nature based ones to structural and infrastructural interventions.

On the other hand, there is growing and data-based evidence that flood risk, in terms of expected damage is increasing. It is also increasingly clear that often floods take communities by surprise. The number of truly unexpected events that are continuously occurring is concerning. Therefore, we assist to a sort of paradox, where new knowledge and opportunities are associated to an increase of risk. What are the reasons for this paradox? For what reason we are not able to transfer new knowledge into operational practice to mitigate the risk of flood? These are interesting questions that are rooted into the science of floods and the way local and regional communities and civil protection manage the risk of flood and its implications.

From a scientific point of view, it is not yet clear the dynamic interaction between climate change, hydrological change (including land-use change) and societal changes. It is also not clear what is the reason of the above surprise. As a result, we are still not fully capable of identifying priorities for actions and solutions.

This talk aim to propose a closer look at the above paradox and questions, basing on the assumption that floods never occur for one reason only, but rather from an interaction of drivers. These need to be better explored by promoting an interdisciplinary approach, which hopefully will promote a transdisciplinary transformation. I will look at the key role of society and in particular economy to get to target and I will discuss the perspectives given by artificial intelligence, which is not a new opportunity but is becoming dramatically more accessible thus offering new options.

The case of the Po River, in Italy, will be used as an example case study, by emphasising that flood risk is not an isolated problem, but it is often accompanied by hydrological risk in general and in particular the risk of drought. Therefore, finding solutions need to be a synergetic effort.