Dynamic assessment of heat stress risks among the aging population in China

Heat stress events in China are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, exacerbated by the nation’s rapidly aging population. Elderly individuals, as a particularly vulnerable group, face heightened risks and have a reduced ability to withstand such hazards. However, research on the long-term dynamics of heat stress risks among the elderly remains limited. This study addresses this gap by employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk framework to evaluate the evolving heat health risks for the elderly in China since the start of the 21st century. By integrating satellite remote sensing, meteorological observations, and socio-ecological statistics, the study captures the dynamic interplay between hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure. The findings reveal that the combination of rising heat hazard days and a worsening aging population has led to a steady increase in the elderly population exposed to heat stress, amplifying both vulnerability and exposure risks over time. Regional disparities in comprehensive risk are striking, driven by differing levels of aging and socio-economic development across China. The central region consistently exhibits the highest and fastest-growing comprehensive heat risk, while the northwest and northeast maintain the lowest risk levels. Conversely, socio-economically advanced provinces in the east, such as Shanghai and Beijing, show declining risk levels due to significant reductions in vulnerability facilitated by rapid social progress. This study provides a dynamic and regionally nuanced perspective on the intersection of aging and heat stress risks, offering critical insights to inform targeted policies and resource allocation. Its findings hold particular relevance for developing countries navigating the dual challenges of climate change and aging populations.