Quantification of Potential Forestation induced change in Daytime Land Surface Temperature in India

Forestation significantly affects local temperatures, yet its effects on land surface temperature (LST) are complex and context-dependent. While much research has focused on the cooling effects of forestation globally by latitudes, less attention has been given to regional, seasonal and class-specific variations in LST.

This study examines how forestation changes daytime LST using a percentile-based approach and identifies climatic drivers of forest greenness through random forest regression across India's diverse forest types, including tropical, temperate, montane, alpine, and sub-alpine, which are further divided into 14 classes. It finds that forestation has both cooling and warming effects depending on forest class and percentiles, with cooling observed in 9 out of 14 forest classes, ranging from -4.1°C in mangroves to warming by 4.8°C in montane dry temperate forests. Forestation cools areas between 12–25°N but warms regions outside this range. Monthly temperature variations are substantial, with Class 13 warming during JJAS and MAM season and Class 5 cooling year-round. Greening variation is primarily driven by latent heat, which explains over 70% of the variation in Classes 4, 5, and 6, and by net photosynthesis, which accounts for up to 69.4% in Class 14. Other factors, such as precipitation, PDSI, and soil moisture, influence forest-specific LAI regulation.The study highlights the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in assessing forestation’s effects on LST, providing valuable insights for climate adaptation and forest management, while suggesting future research to explore microclimatic feedbacks and long-term ecosystem impacts.

Keywords: Forestation, Land Surface Temperature, Climatic Drivers, Greenness,  Seasonal Variation