Exploring whole-life trade-offs for mixed adaptation pathways with a large risk-scenario-library using Resilience Studio enhanced with QFlow

A new web-based portal, Resilience Studio, has been developed to help explore large spatio-temporal risk scenario libraries of mixed adaptation strategies to multi-source hazards in the face of rapid climate change. The software is demonstrated using global flood hazard maps at 30m resolution and 5m resolution for a UK case-study, combined with world population data to provide an equitable measure of expected annual flood risk to people now and in the future, anywhere globally. The studio environment permits exploration of how risk is expected to change across a wide range of through-time (decadal) ‘what-if’ mitigation scenarios including property flood resilience, embankments, early warning and nature-based solutions (following Hankin et al., 2022). The framework is agnostic to the type of hazard and metrics, including natural capital assessments of multi-hazards, and permitting a more complete system understanding.  

We demonstrate how the integrated whole-life benefits of user-selected adaptation pathways, tempered by estimated mitigation costs, can be visualised in a new way to permit dynamic appraisal of trade-offs. The user can explore introducing mitigations at the best point in time to anticipate tipping points from projected step changes in future risk (Hankin et al., 2023). The intention is to develop M-L co-pilot suggestions for more efficacious pathways to assist with long term, dynamic planning using benefit-cost as an objective function.  Finally, to help with on-demand appraisal of supplementary risk scenarios outside of the library, a new QGIS based tool, QFlow, is demonstrated to show rapid inundation modelling and impact analysis - creating flexibility for adding unforeseen flood hazards such as reservoir breach failure.

 

Hankin, B., Sampson, T., Ilyasova, A., Pleijter, G., 2023.How do climate change pathway assumptions effect economic viability and prioritisation of flood projects? Proceedings of the Irish National Hydrology Conference. https://hydrologyireland.ie/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/09-B-Hankin-T-Sampson-JBA-Pathways_edit01-2.pdf

Hankin, B., Ramirez, L., Wood, I., Green, A., Quincieu, E., Lauren, Y., and Lawless, M.: Integrated flood risk management prioritization in Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9246, 2022.