- 1Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- 2Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- 3ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
- 4RECETOX, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
Seasonal mortality patterns are influenced by a complex interaction between climatic factors, such as temperature variability, and epidemiological factors, such as the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI). However, the extent to which year-to-year variations in mortality attributable to cold weather and seasonal influenza affect population vulnerability to extreme temperatures in subsequent warm seasons remains poorly understood.
This study aims to assess the interaction between cold-season temperature variability and influenza activity on excess mortality in both cold and warm seasons. Specifically, we investigate how cold-season mortality patterns, driven by non-optimal temperatures and varying levels of ILI incidence, influence population vulnerability to extreme heat in the following summer.
We utilize daily weather and mortality data sourced from the EARLY-ADAPT dataset for the European region, along with weekly ILI counts obtained from the ERVISS surveillance system, spanning multiple years. Epidemic seasons were classified into high, moderate, or low influenza activity based on ILI thresholds (>67th, 33rd–67th, and <33rd percentiles, respectively). Using a two-stage mixed-effect meta-regression analysis, we investigate associations between temperature, influenza activity, and excess mortality during the cold season, as well as their potential influence on heat-related mortality in the following warm season.
Preliminary analyses suggest that the interaction between influenza incidence and low temperatures amplify seasonal mortality risks. This research sheds light on the complex relationship between climatic variability, respiratory infections, and seasonal mortality patterns, offering valuable insights for developing more effective public health strategies to mitigate temperature-related risks. These findings underscore the importance of integrating epidemiological and climatic data to enhance public health adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.
Keywords: DLNM, seasonal mortality, influenza, heat stress, temperature variability
How to cite: Borisova, E., Urban, A., Janoš, T., and Ballester, J.: The compound role of temperature and influenza in seasonal mortality patterns in Europe , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5214, 2025.
