Shifting Mountain Flood Regimes under Global Warming

High Mountainous Areas (HMAs) with extensive snow cover presents considerable modelling challenges due to their intricate topography and data scarcity. However, these regions are particularly of concern as they are experiencing rapid warming, resulting in accelerated snowmelt along with more intense rainfall events, complicating the notion of flood typology that has existed for the region since long. Here, we present a comprehensive framework to evaluate projected changes in flood typology in HMAs for future relative to the Historical period. The results suggest that there will be a notable increase in rainfall-induced floods, particularly of the short-duration variety, coupled with a decrease in snowmelt-induced floods as the future periods advance. Additionally, there is a noticeable shift in the mean timing of floods, suggesting a delay in their occurrence. Although these results are specific to the three regions studied, similar changes will likely occur in other snow-dominated basins across HMAs. These insights could empower policymakers to make informed decisions and enhance regional risk assessment and management strategies.