Multi-source assessment of current precipitation dynamics over the Mediterranean region

Climate change and variability are expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, altering precipitation patterns, especially in climate hot spots like the Mediterranean region. Despite extensive research, comprehensive studies using high-resolution datasets to assess spatial and temporal variability across the entire Mediterranean are limited. Here, we analyze trends in total precipitation, wet days, daily intensity, and quantile-based precipitation intensities using ten datasets from 2001 to 2019: E-OBS, EM-EARTH, ERA5-Land, GPM-IMERG, GSMaP, GPCP, GPCC, MERRA2-Land, MSWEP, and MSWX. Results indicate an increase in total precipitation driven by more wet days and intensified precipitation. Spatial analysis shows rising annual precipitation trends in the eastern and northern Mediterranean, while the western region, especially the Iberian Peninsula, exhibits declines. Annual precipitation and wet day frequency display mirrored patterns, with both metrics gradually increasing until 2012, followed by higher variability. Quantile analysis reveals rising precipitation trends across all, with medium-range quantiles (30th to 60th quantiles) showing the highest increases. These findings enhance our understanding of recent precipitation changes in the Mediterranean, crucial for water resource management, agriculture, and climate resilience.