Quantifying Climate Impact on Tomato Production in Central India: A Process-Based Yield Simulation for Near and Mid-Future Scenarios

Tomato production is vital to Central India's agricultural output and plays a significant role in the region's economy. However, the escalating impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to the sustainability and productivity of tomato farming in this region. This study assesses the effects of variations in solar radiation and temperature on tomato yields utilizing a calibrated process-based crop simulation model (CSM). Climate forecasts utilizing SSP4.5 and SSP8.5 pathways were applied to model yields in near (2010-2039) and mid-future (2040-2069) scenarios. Significant findings indicate a large reduction in yield potential, particularly under mid-future high-emission scenarios (SSP8.5), accompanied by considerable geographical variability. Regions such as Damoh and Western Nimar demonstrate enhanced resilience owing to advantageous local climatic circumstances, whilst areas like the Kymore Plateau and Bundelkhand Agro-Climatic zone display the most significant decreases. Key developmental phases, including flowering and fruit set, are especially susceptible to elevated temperatures and diminished solar radiation. This research highlights the need for region-specific adaptation techniques to alleviate climate impacts, including modifying planting schedules and adopting heat-tolerant varieties. These insights offer a crucial basis for policymakers and farmers to guarantee the sustainability of tomato production in Central India under changing climate circumstances.

Keywords: Crop Simulation Model (CSM), Tomato Yields, GCMs, Central India, policymakers