- 1Fredy and Nadine Herrmann, Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
- 2University of Toronto, Canada
Cyclonic systems in the Eastern Mediterranean often produce compound extremes of heavy precipitation and strong winds, significantly impacting socio-economic systems. This study leverages traditional atmospheric analysis and dynamical systems theory to investigate these “wet” and “windy” extremes (Vakrat and Hochman, 2023). Using the co-recurrence ratio (α; De Luca et al., 2020) and persistence (1/θ; Faranda et al., 2017), we quantify atmospheric state dynamics and link them to extreme weather events. Results reveal that compound extremes exhibit higher co-recurrence and persistence than individual extremes, with anomalies in these metrics increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events by up to 18-fold. A case study of the mid-February 2012 Eastern Mediterranean compound event highlights the role of persistent upper-level dynamics in driving these extremes. Our findings emphasize the value of dynamical systems metrics in enhancing the predictability of compound extremes and their application to other regions and extreme weather events (Hochman et al., 2019).
References
De Luca P, Messori G, Pons FME, Faranda D. Dynamical systems theory sheds new light on compound climate extremes in Europe and Eastern North America. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146: 1636–1650. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3757
Faranda D, Messori G, Yiou P. Dynamical proxies of North Atlantic predictability and extremes. Scientific Reports 7: 41278. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41278
Hochman A, Alpert P, Harpaz T, Saaroni H, Messori G. 2019. A new dynamical systems perspective on atmospheric predictability: eastern Mediterranean weather regimes as a case study. Science Advances 5(6): eaau0936. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau0936
Vakrat, E. Hochman, A. 2023.Dynamical systems insights on cyclonic compound “wet” and “windy” extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149(757): 3593–3606. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4575
How to cite: Hochman, A. and Vakrat, E.: Understanding Cyclonic Compound “Wet” and “Windy” Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean through Dynamical Systems Theory, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-5532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-5532, 2025.
