Links between the Indian Ocean Dipole and Persistent Dry Spells in the Eastern Mediterranean Winter

Persistent Dry Spells (PDS) during winter in the eastern Mediterranean are crucial to understanding the regional challenges of water resources and mitigating agricultural and economic impacts. Winter dry spells significantly affect ecosystem stability, public health, and socioeconomic conditions in a region susceptible to climate variability. Therefore, extending the forecast horizon of these extreme weather events to subseasonal time scales is a key challenge. With this aim, we examine the covariability of the sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean and Persistent Dry Spells during winter over the eastern Mediterranean. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phase alters global circulation patterns, notably increasing the geopotential height at 500 hPa and the sea-level pressure over western Russia, eastern Europe, and the eastern Mediterranean during PDS events. Concurrently, the positive IOD phase enhances moisture fluxes and decreases sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hPa in the Western Mediterranean, suggesting increased cyclonic activity in that region. This type of activity probably influences the formation of PDS in the eastern Mediterranean through latent heating and the formation of ridges downstream of the cyclones. The baroclinic, subtropical, and polar regimes are large-scale synoptic regimes alternately prevailing during PDS events. Changes due to the DMI phase are not identical under these regimes and sometimes have opposite trends. The baroclinic regime is the most frequent regime during PDS events. Consequently, the average changes in pressure intensity during PDS events strongly resemble those during baroclinic days. Positive DMI case studies exemplify the effect of these large-scale regimes. We provide evidence for a link between the positive phase of IOD in December and the frequency of longer (> 15 days) PDS events. The normalized frequencies of persistent 15-20-day events under the positive dipole mode index (DMI) are ~ 2% higher than the frequency of negative DMI. The frequencies of 6-7 day events are ~20% lower. Finally, we emphasize the sensitivity of persistent dry spells during winter to event definition, the chosen precipitation data source, and threshold definitions for climate indices. These considerations are essential for improving the accuracy of regional weather and climate predictions, further enhancing our understanding of the climatic impacts of IOD and other teleconnection patterns in the eastern Mediterranean and worldwide.