Developing a prediction model for the relationship between climate, water resources, and mosquito dynamics: application to a case study in a human-impacted Mediterranean wetland

Climate change is a key determinant of public health, influencing disease patterns, and public and environmental well-being. Mosquito population dynamics are largely determined by climatic factors and water availability. Therefore, understanding the linkage between local water resources and mosquito dynamics is crucial for better predicting current and future health risks, and informing effective disease control and health risk reduction. Here, we investigate how temporal and spatial distribution of water availability affects mosquito populations in a natural wetland area under current and future climate r scenarios. The study was conducted in the natural park of the  Aiguamolls de l’Empordà,  connected to La Muga and El-Fluvia river basins in Catalonia, Northeast Spain. Empirical data on river runoff and local water levels were collected from several discharge stations, while abundance estimates of mosquito populations were obtained from mosquito traps spread across the study area. The hydrological assessment is carried out with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). This model uses observed rainfall and air temperature from the gridded earth observation dataset over Europe (E-OBS) to simulate streamflow and hydrological responses of the study area. Based on the in situ data and hydrological simulation outputs, we derive a relationship between water availability and mosquito population abundance that can be used to predict future disease risk in the study area. Our results will be integrated within the “Infectious Disease decision-support tools and Alert systems to build climate Resilience to emerging health Threats (IDAlert)” project funded by the European Union. This decision-support tool plays a critical role in targeted interventions in water management and the health sector, directly contributing to reducing health risks due to mosquito-borne diseases.

Keywords: Health risk, SWAT, Spatial and temporal distribution of water, Mosquito populations, IDAlert