TurboMeter: attributing aviation turbulence events to climate change

Turbulence remains a pressing challenge for aviation safety and efficiency, as highlighted by recent incidents involving Singapore Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Scandinavian Airlines. Among the various types, Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) poses the greatest hazard due to its occurrence in clear skies, rendering it difficult to detect and predict. Furthermore, the unprecedented changes in Earth's climate are reshaping atmospheric dynamics on a global scale, with profound implications on aviation. As a companion of ClimaMeter, a platform designed to assess and contextualize extreme weather phenomena in relation to climate change, we introduce here TurboMeter. It is designed to use ERA5 reanalysis data to investigate the meteorological drivers of turbulence events by comparing them with historical analogues under similar atmospheric conditions. Turbulence diagnostics, including Ellrod’s indices, are used to evaluate the roles of jet streams, wind shear, and convective activity at typical cruising altitudes.

To illustrate TurboMeter, we present some recent aviation turbulence events occurred during 2024. Our findings reveal that they are closely linked to intensified jet streams and enhanced convective activity, influenced by the growing impacts of anthropogenic climate change. These results highlight a concerning trend: changing climatic patterns are altering the atmospheric drivers of turbulence, particularly CAT, with significant implications for flight safety and operational planning. Our study evidences the urgent need for improved weather forecasting and turbulence prediction models to mitigate aviation risks in a rapidly warming climate.