Stromboli Fires: What could have happened?

Between 2019 and 2022, multiple fires affected Stromboli Island, causing significant environmental damage and highlighting the need for effective preventive measures. In 2019, two fires were ignited by eruptive activity, while in 2022, human actions were responsible for a major wildfire. These events underline the complexity of fire dynamics in volcanic environments, where topography, wind, and vegetation flammability play critical roles in fire propagation. Furthermore, the aftermath of these fires has triggered secondary hazards, such as floods and debris flows following heavy rains, which further exacerbated the environmental and societal impact on the island.
In this work we leverage a cellular automata-based numerical model specifically designed for volcanic-induced fires, integrating factors such as wind, topography, and vegetation characteristics to simulate the fire evolution as well as the interaction with possible mitigations measurements. We conducted fire spreading numerical simulations exploring different configurations of firebreak lines, including the strategic use of hiking trails as potential barriers to fire spread. This model also benefits from the integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), enhancing its ability to classify soil types and map burnt areas with good spatial accuracy.
The simulations demonstrate how the proposed model can be used to create fire hazard scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies. For instance, our results for the 2019 and 2022 fires exhibit high spatial accuracy, with Brier scores of 0.188±0.002 and 0.073±0.001, respectively. These findings underscore the utility of numerical modeling not only for understanding fire dynamics but also for planning preventive actions to mitigate wildfire risks and reduce the cascading effects of secondary hazards, ultimately contributing to more effective fire and disaster management on Stromboli and other volcanoes with similar environmental conditions.