Crop adaptation and its impact on non-point source pollution under future climate challenges

The increased likelihood and severity of extreme weather events in the future affect the key processes of terrestrial ecosystems such as plant growth, water fluxes and biogeochemical cycles of all elements. It is urgent need to adopt climate change adaptive measures in agricultural production to overcome the negative effects of climate change on crop production and nutrient losses. This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for investigating optimized crop rotations that balance environmental sustainability and economic benefits while enhancing resilience to future climate conditions . The research involves three key steps. First, crop rotations at the catchment scale were generated using the Crop Generator tool. Second, the water quality model (mHM-Nitrate) and the crop growth model (WOFOST) were coupled using a process-based modeling approach. Third, environmental and economic indicators—such as crop yields, farmers' income, and nitrate leaching—were employed to evaluate crop production activities under different climate scenarios. The study will be conducted in the Bode catchment, Germany, where 45 feasible crop rotations have been planned. The study is going to explore how these crop rotations may evolve over the next two decades under four distinct climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5). Additionally, the study aims to identify recommended crop rotations by quantifying their impacts on nitrogen dynamics and crop yields. This research provides an useful and comprehensive framework for devising crop adaptation strategies at the watershed scale in the face of future climate change.