Hydroclimatic Modeling of Lake Victoria: Development of an Inland Lakes Integrated Water Balance Model with Future Climatic Risk Projections

Lake Victoria, the world’s second-largest freshwater lake, is vital for regional ecosystems and the livelihoods of millions across East Africa. However, the basin is increasingly vulnerable to hydroclimatic extremes, such as floods and droughts, exacerbated by climate variability and human activities. This research aims to address these challenges through the development and application of a Inland Lakes Integrated Water Balance Model (ILIWaB Model) for the lake. The ILIWaB Model, which has been successfully developed, integrates hydrological, meteorological, and socioeconomic data to simulate lake inflows, outflows, and net balances. The model serves as a foundation for flood simulations and climate projections, with the latter performed under a suite of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to capture diverse future scenarios. Key outputs include flood extent simulations, scheduled for completion by May 2025, and the assessment of risks to surrounding populations. These simulations aim to predict the intensity and frequency of flooding events and evaluate their implications for population safety, infrastructure, and economic stability. Preliminary results demonstrate the model’s capability to accurately replicate historical water balance conditions and predict potential flooding hotspots. Long-term projections suggest a significant increase in flood risks under high-emission scenarios, threatening over 5 million residents in low-lying areas. The study underscores the importance of adopting adaptive management strategies and informed policymaking to mitigate future risks. This research offers a robust framework for climate-resilient planning in the Lake Victoria basin and provides transferable insights for other transboundary water systems globally.