The modeling of oil pollution in the Kerch Strait in December 2024

A serious maritime accident was caused in the Black Sea, when the hull of the tanker Volgoneft 212 broke at the southern entrance of the Kerch Strait around 06:00 GMT on December 15, 2024, about 4,000 tons of mazut fuel leaked. The weather at the time was very rough, with winds of up to 18 m/s and wave heights up to 3–5 m in the southern area of the Kerch Strait. It was reported from on-site observations that the oil spill during the first 3 days impacted an extended part of the southeastern coast, up to 60 km long from Veselovka to Anapa beaches. It was difficult to detect the oil spill extent using satellite SAR images, due to the limitations of such sensors under bad ocean conditions. However, a few SAR images were obtained by RadarSat and ESA on the 19th and 23rd of December 2024. Furthermore, there are several uncertainties concerning the location of the oil spill source and the time of the beginning of the oil discharge. The MEDSLIK oil spill model has been applied to predict the oil spill leakages using the Copernicus Marine Service Black Sea MFS currents, the SKIRON winds, and the CYCOFOS waves, considering a continuous oil leakage. Initially, for the oil spill predictions, the reported location of the tanker was used; however, the predicted impact on the coast did not correspond to the reported on-site observations. A new location was stochastically selected based on the AIS system locations, which shows the two bunkering zones of the vessels waiting before getting the approval to enter the strait. The oil spill predictions show a good agreement with the reported on-site observations regarding the impacted coastal areas, the large extent of the impacted coastal area, and the chronology of the oil deposition in the coastal area. The oil spill predictions confirm the deposition of the oil spillages on the touristic beaches between Veselovka and Blagoveshchensky, after first impacting the coast in the morning of December 17, 2024, i.e., 51-54 hours from the oil discharges, and of the Vitiazevo and Anapa beaches after first impacting the coast a few hours later in the morning of the same day, i.e., 54-57 hours from the oil discharges. At 22:00 GMT on December 17, 2024, i.e., 60-63 hours from the oil discharges, it was predicted the first impact on the coast from Anapa to Utrish. The SAR image obtained by RadarSat on the 19th of December 2024 at 16:00 GMT confirms the predicted impacted area between Anapa and Utrish. At 04:00 GMT in the early morning of December 20, 2024, the wind changed to strong southerly winds up to 8 m/s, contributing to the transfer of the oil spillage inside the strait, impacting first the cape Takil’ and then the western coastal area of the strait up to the port of Kerch. The SAR image obtained by ESA on 23 December 2024 at 03:45 GMT confirms the predicted impacted areas along the western coast of the Kerch Strait.