Value-based and stakeholder-driven complex risk mapping for underwater heritage through Living Labs

Climate change is one of the biggest threats to cultural and natural heritage across marine and coastal ecosystems. Multiple risks interact, cascade, and/or compound broader environmental, socio-economic, and cultural impacts on tangible (places, structures, ecosystems, etc.) and intangible heritage attributes (values, socio-economic activities, etc.). These risks arise from exposure, vulnerability, and responses to such impacts. For example, the physical materiality and integrity of underwater cultural properties are threatened by changes in water temperatures and acidity levels, compounded by extreme weather events causing strong waves and currents, which disrupt livelihoods tied to tourism and fisheries and provide conditions for looting and unregulated diving. This study adopts an empirical, value-based, and stakeholder-driven approach to identify, assess, and map these complex risks and their interactions.  

As part of the THETIDA Horizon Europe project that aims to develop an integrated risk monitoring, preparedness, and management mechanism for underwater and coastal heritage sites, the Living Labs methodology has been employed in the pilot sites. Through public-private-people partnerships, the Living Labs engage relevant national and local stakeholders and community groups to identify values, determine impacts, and assess exposure, vulnerability, and responses. This stakeholder-driven complex risk mapping methodology relies on the framework for complex climate change risk assessment that includes response as the fourth determinant of risks, together with hazard, exposure, and vulnerability [1]. In addition, it builds upon the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) for World Heritage, which employs a systematic and value-based approach to assess the climate vulnerability of shared values and attributes of cultural and natural properties [2]. Building upon CVI’s two-stepped procedure targeting to assess impacts on heritage values and communities, this complex risk mapping framework adopts a similar process to determine:

• Risks to heritage values: The heritage values attributed to the sites are identified. Moreover, their vulnerability, exposure to risks, and the impacts of key hazards and climate stressors on the sites are assessed.
• Risks to heritage communities: The heritage communities (stakeholders) and their socio-economic and cultural connections to the sites are identified. At the same time, their vulnerability, exposure to risks, and collective and/or institutional responses to climate-induced impacts are being evaluated.

This paper will present this innovative complex risk mapping framework and its preliminary implementation results in one of the THETIDA underwater sites. These sites include the Ottoman shipwreck in Paralimni, Cyprus, and the Second World War airplane wreck off the coast of Algarve, Portugal.

The complex risks posed to underwater heritage sites and their interactions remain largely underexplored in the existing literature, limiting the adoption of inclusive strategies to address them. This value-based and stakeholder-driven complex risk mapping framework outlined here enables a comprehensive assessment of risks and impacts on heritage values and communities. While initially tested for underwater sites, this framework provides a systematic methodology that can be applied to all heritage types, making it highly relevant for decision- and policy-makers working to safeguard underwater and coastal heritage.

Acknowledgement: This research has been funded by European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation funding under Grant Agreement No: 101095253, THETIDA project.

References:

[1] DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.005

[2] DOI: 10.5070/P536146384