Seismicity and Tectonic Insights of Muş Province, Eastern Turkey

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of seismicity and tectonic activity in Muş Province, one of Eastern Turkey's most seismically active regions, due to its position along critical tectonic boundaries. The study provides valuable insights into the region's seismic hazards and tectonic dynamics by examining seismic activity, fault mechanisms, and earthquake recurrence intervals.

Earthquake catalogs from national and international sources—Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute – Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring Center (B.U. KOERI-RETMC), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS)—were analyzed to investigate the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes. Magnitude-frequency distributions were modeled using the Gutenberg-Richter law to estimate earthquake occurrence probabilities and recurrence intervals. Spatial variations in stress accumulation were visualized through high-resolution b-value maps. Notably, consistently low b-values were observed across the region, except for its northeastern part, indicating high-stress accumulation and an elevated potential for significant seismic activity in these zones.

Historical earthquake data from the European Archive of Historical Earthquake Data (AHEAD), the Share European Earthquake Catalog (SHEEC), and AFAD were incorporated into the analysis to provide a long-term perspective on seismic activity. Focal mechanism solutions were compiled from diverse sources, including AFAD, B.U. KOERI-RETMC, the GEOFON data center of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, the Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor (GCMT) project catalogs, and moment tensor inversions were conducted within this study. These solutions facilitated a detailed characterization of faulting styles and stress orientations, offering critical insights into the tectonic forces shaping the region.

The findings reveal the region's complex fault dynamics and significant spatial heterogeneities in stress distribution and clustering patterns. These results underscore the importance of enhanced seismic monitoring and targeted preparedness efforts in high-risk areas. By integrating historical and recent seismic data with robust statistical and physical models, this study makes a substantial contribution to seismic hazard assessment and establishes a foundation for future research. Potential extensions include incorporating machine learning techniques, microseismicity analysis, and geodetic data integration to refine hazard models tailored to the unique tectonic environment of Muş Province.