Extreme event attribution: a utilisation perspective for decision-making communities

Extreme event attribution (EEA) science estimates the influence of human and natural drivers on extreme weather. Collectively the field has demonstrated that human-caused warming has contributed to an increased likelihood and intensity of a range of extreme weather events across most inhabited regions. The geographically uneven nature of attribution capability globally presents ethical challenges for using attribution science in an equitable way and a range of recommendations on the extent to which EEA can inform decision and policy making have been made.

As an interdisciplinary team of climate attribution scientists and climate knowledge brokers we build on the discussion around the role for EEA across a range of decision-making contexts.  We provide a novel ‘use case’ perspective, with a focus on how EEA can inform media and communication, humanitarian applications, adaptation action and risk management, legal challenge, and the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.

We explore the relative capabilities and limitations of different EEA methods within these use cases and identify how evidence gaps vary regionally. In particular, we focus on those gaps relevant to countries that face technical, computational or other capacity barriers to conducting and utilising EEA assessments.

We provide an example of an approach for bridging across disciplines to support practitioner and decision-making communities with the utilisation of scientific research relevant to their operating contexts. Ultimately the aim is to support the infrastructure necessary for climate attribution science to inform effective climate adaptation and mitigation action, accounting for the inherent limitations and uncertainties.