The perfect storm: loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones in a counterfactual climate

Storm Eunice was a severe windstorm that impacted Central Europe in February 2022, causing over €2.5 Bn in insured loss. It formed on a cold front west of the Azores before undergoing explosive cyclogenesis and tracking across Central Europe, producing recorded wind gusts of up to 55 ms^-1. The contribution of climate change to the storm dynamics and severity was examined by Ermis et al., who found that in counterfactual weather forecasts - given an identical initial synoptic setup - climate change had measurably increased the severity of the storm. 

 

Here we move beyond their meteorological attribution and quantify the role of climate change in the losses incurred during Eunice. We combine the same counterfactual weather forecasts with two loss models, including one state-of-the-art catastrophe model, finding that the increases in meteorological severity do translate through to substantial increases in estimated loss. We compare the loss model results with a commonly used “loss index” finding that the index inadequately represents the heavy tail of the loss distribution, demonstrating the importance of using impact models for quantitative assessments of loss in a changing climate.

 

Of particular note is the existence of several “boosted” members within the forecast ensembles whose losses are far greater than what unfolded in reality. This includes one realisation, simulated in a warmer “future” climate, in which the total loss nearly reaches €50 Bn. The plausible existence of such a catastrophic loss is of considerable relevance to a wide variety of stakeholders across adaptation planning, and the financial sector. We suggest that our results demonstrate not only the potential utility of weather forecast models in quantifying impacts attributable to climate change, but also the value of academic - private partnerships in which the two sectors are able to bring different areas of expertise.