Improving Flood Resilience Planning and Decision-making in the Himalayas: A Collective Action Approach with System Dynamics Modeling

Flood risks in the Himalayan Mountains are exacerbated by climate change, underdevelopment, and rapid urbanization. Traditional "predict-and-control" approaches and top-down frameworks prove to be inadequate in addressing the multifaceted nature of flood resilience. While existing literature focuses on technical aspects of flood resilience, such as risk assessment and providing physical reinforcements, it lacks a holistic consideration of social, environmental, geographical, and technical dimensions. This study adopts a transdisciplinary approach by integrating Grid-Group Theory with Participatory System Dynamics Modelling (PSDM), fostering a comprehensive understanding of diverse perspectives and enabling collaborative development of flood resilience solutions. A mixed-methods field campaign was conducted in high-risk areas, involving stakeholder engagement in 13 workshops, 25 site observations, and 63 interviews. Preliminary findings revealed that a significant emphasis (83%) has been placed on engineering resilience in current planning and decision-making, with limited consideration for ecological (17%) and a complete absence of socio-ecological resilience. Critical interdependencies and root causes were identified through the development of a system dynamics model, highlighting leverage points for improved resilience outcomes. This research contributes to the expanding body of knowledge surrounding resilience planning and decision-making, collective action methods, and the application of system dynamics modelling. Valuable insights are offered for developing more holistic and effective flood resilience strategies in the Himalayan context.