Upper level processes in simple models for tropical cyclones in high resolution simulations

Estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones has been a critical research topic in the field.
Theoretical models such as the potential intensity (PI), first introduced by Emanuel 1986 [1],
provide an upper bound for the intensity a tropical cyclone can achieve based on pre-storm
conditions. However, PI and other similar models are based on idealized settings that may
not always match real-world conditions, such as assuming a neutral atmosphere to moist
convection. Using simulations from the high resolution cloud resolving model SAM [3] in
rotating radiative-convective equilibrium settings, we assess the validity of the idealiza-
tions of the PI theory. We find that upper level processes are responsible for the intensity
oscillations of the tropical cyclone in the simulations, as confirmed by a recent study [5]. We
further show that when accounting for the upper level processes, it is possible to modify
PI such that it approximately follows the observed intensity evolution.

[1] K. A. Emanuel, J. Atmos. Sci. 43, 6 (1986).
[2] K. A. Emanuel et al., Annu. Rev. Earth Planet Sci. 31, 1 (2003).
[3] M. F. Khairoutdinov, D. A. Randall, J. Atmos. Sci. 60, 4 (2003).
[4] C. J. Muller, D. M. Romps, PNAS 115, 12 (2018).
[5] A. Polesello, G. A. Charinti,  A. N. Meroni, C. J. Muller, C. Pasquero (submitted, 2025).
[6] A. A. Wing, K. A. Emanuel, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 6, 1 (2014).