High-resolution snow projections for Switzerland for the 21st century

Climate change is projected to substantially reduce snow availability, posing significant challenges for downstream sectors such as ski resort operations, aquatic ecosystems, and hydropower, which are heavily reliant on seasonal snowmelt and streamflow dynamics. This study presents, for the first time, high-resolution (1x1 km²) daily projections of snow cover and snow water equivalent (SWE) for Switzerland under different global warming levels. These projections are derived from an ensemble of over 25 statistically downscaled EURO-CORDEX models, coupled with an operational snow model. We quantify critical thresholds for snow-dependent metrics, including the regional distribution of ephemeral versus seasonal snowpacks, providing new insights into their temporal and spatial evolution. Additionally, we quantify the influence of multivariate versus univariate bias correction techniques on snow simulations and their downstream effects of SWE and snow cover trends. Our results emphasize the importance of methodological choices in climate impact studies and offer actionable insights for managing future snow-dependent resources in a rapidly warming climate.