Exploring Climate Implications of Land-Cover Change in Europe Through High-Resolution Climate Modeling

Afforestation and deforestation have profound and diverse biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the climate system, especially in Europe, a region characterized by different climatic and ecological zones. As tree planting is often considered a viable way to increase carbon removal from the atmosphere, understanding these impacts is crucial for achieving the goals of the European Green Deal. This study aims to quantify the climate consequences of forest cover changes, evaluating both local and broader non-local biophysical interactions.

We use advanced regional climate modeling with a 5 km spatial resolution, using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM5) coupled with the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Simulations include a baseline scenario and two scenarios representing afforestation and deforestation, covering 2004–2014. 

Key variables such as surface energy fluxes, air temperature, and radiative balances are analyzed to reveal the local and spillover effects of land use change. The high-resolution modelling approach captures spatial heterogeneity and provides detailed insights into temperature dynamics and energy flux variations across European landscapes.

The results reveal a marked asymmetry in the biophysical effects of afforestation and deforestation, with deforestation exerting a stronger signal than afforestation. This asymmetry depends on the initial forest cover conditions, underscoring the need for fine-scale assessments. These results underline the importance of guiding land use planning and policy formulation to ensure the development of sustainable and effective climate change strategies. This work contributes to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts by providing actionable insights for integrating advanced modelling tools into land management practices.