Collaborative explorative scenario-development as an initiator of transformative thinking: challenges and opportunities

In Ghana, the metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi, along with rural regions in the White Volta catchment, are increasingly affected by river and heavy rain flooding. The interplay between climate extremes, urbanization, and land use planning presents a complex challenge for various stakeholders including policy-makers, water resource managers, disaster managers, local community leaders, and residents of flood-prone areas. These groups must navigate this array of pressures to reduce the risk from flooding while also sustaining livelihoods.

However, the policies and measures implemented to adapt to these conditions can have varied impacts, potentially triggering feedback loops that may foster shifting of vulnerabilities, rebounding vulnerabilities and/or eroding sustainable development. This situation highlights the need for a transformative approach in managing flood risks.

This presentation discusses the potential and limitation of collaborative explorative scenario-development as a method to stimulate transformative thinking among stakeholders. It examines the effectiveness of this approach in shifting focus from project-based efforts to more transformative actions, while also accommodating the unique needs of different communities and stakeholder groups.