- 1Czech University of Life Sciences , Faculty of Environmental Science, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Modeling, Praha, Czechia (yadavd@fzp.czu.cz)
- 2Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- 3Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Flash Droughts characterized by their rapid onset and development are a growing concern because of the threats it poses to agriculture and ecosystems (O and Park, 2023) caused by the rapid decline in soil moisture. Despite that little is known about how they will develop under different warming levels.
This study aims to bridge that gap in our understanding of flash drought development by examining the frequency and extent of flash droughts across Europe under 1.0°C, 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels relative to pre-industrial time. This study uses mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) (Samaniego et al., 2010; Kumar et al, 2013) to simulate soil moisture using the data from bias corrected climate projections from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3b (ISIMIP3b) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016). Flash droughts are identified using percentiles-based criteria detecting rapid decline in soil moisture content (Shah et al., 2022).
Results indicate the area under flash droughts are expected to increase by 50% at 3°C warming compared to 1°C in the entire Europe with the effect being more prominent in the Northern parts of Europe going as high as three times at 3°C compared to 1°C. Frequency of such events is expected to double as the climate heats up from 1 °C to 3 °C, with the effects again getting reflected more in the Northern region of the Europe and diminishing as we move down South towards the Mediterranean. Results also indicate that areas such as France, Spain and Norway which were already facing flash droughts historically are expected to have more such events with new areas also getting affected thus making the event more widespread.
These findings indicate the effect of climate change and how it can affect the agricultural systems and the need for proactive adaptation measures to mitigate the effects.
Keywords: Flash drought, mHM, CMIP6, Warming levels, soil moisture, pre-industrial
Kumar, R., Samaniego, L. and Attinger, S., 2013. Implications of distributed hydrologic model parameterization on water fluxes at multiple scales and locations. Water Resources Research, 49(1), pp.360-379.
O, S., Park, S.K., 2023. Flash drought drives rapid vegetation stress in arid regions in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 18, 014028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acae3a
O’Neill, B.C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D.P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G.A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., Sanderson, B.M., 2016. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., Attinger, S., 2010. Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale. Water Resour. Res. 46. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007327
Shah, J., Hari, V., Rakovec, O., Markonis, Y., Samaniego, L., Mishra, V., Hanel, M., Hinz, C., Kumar, R., 2022. Increasing footprint of climate warming on flash droughts occurrence in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 064017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6888
How to cite: Yadav, D., Kumar, R., Shah, J., Hanel, M., and Rakovec, O.: Projected flash drought evolution across Europe at different global warming levels , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-727, 2025.
