Framework for Offshore wind farms’ future location planning in the UK exclusive economic zone

High electricity generation costs remain a significant barrier to wind energy adoption. Projections of a 37–49% cost reduction by 2050 have driven the expansion of offshore wind farms (OWFs), which benefit from larger installations and abundant wind resources. However, climate change poses risks to OWFs, with extreme weather events (EWEs) potentially exposing turbines to conditions beyond their design limits. This study develops a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-based framework to optimize OWF siting in the UK Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), ensuring resilience to EWEs and future wind variability.

The framework evaluates future high wind events (HWE) exceeding turbine cut-out speeds and extreme loading thresholds, alongside low wind events (LWE) impacting power generation stability. Using high-resolution UK climate projections (UKCP18), the study integrates critical datasets—mean wind speed, gusts, temperature, and pressure—into site selection. Three MCDA methods (Vikor, Topsis, Cocoso) were identified as most effective based on strong correlation tests and applied to assess ten factors across three climate periods.

Results indicate that 17 MW turbines align with industry trends, while repowering existing OWFs in the East is less favorable due to future ranking declines. The Northwest emerges as the preferred region for new installations, offering greater resilience to climate impacts and ranking stability.

This work supports planners in strategic wind power capacity distribution, reducing variability, enhancing turbine resilience, and integrating climate projections into OWF planning. The framework provides a robust tool for adaptive and sustainable wind energy development in a changing climate.