Mediterranean precipitation remains stationary and is primarily driven by the natural dynamics of atmospheric circulation

Advanced climate models project a substantial decrease in future precipitation for the Mediterranean, consistent with recent observational studies suggesting declining rainfall levels often attributed to human-driven climate change. However, other researchers highlight significant variability in Mediterranean precipitation due to atmospheric circulation patterns, with overall stability over the long term. Given these conflicting findings, a detailed evaluation of precipitation trends is essential, relying on high-quality, densely distributed observational data and comparing climate model simulations with historical observations. Using a dataset from over 23,000 stations across 27 countries, we have demonstrated that Mediterranean precipitation has remained largely stable, exhibiting variability over multi-decadal and annual scales. While earlier studies have frequently linked the relatively small number of significant precipitation trends identified to anthropogenic influences, it seems more plausible that such trends are driven through variability in atmospheric circulation driven by the internal variability. Notably, this study found limited evidence of human activity directly affecting the atmospheric circulation mechanisms, whether on a large or regional scale. Moreover, our findings align with CMIP6 model simulations, both of which suggest the absence of a consistent long-term trend in precipitation.