Unveiling the Challenges and Opportunities of Sustainable Development Goals in China: Identifying the Main Causal Relationships

Unveiling the Challenges and Opportunities of Sustainable Development Goals in China: Identifying the Main Causal Relationships

       Accelerating the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires understanding their main causal relationships at the national and sub-national levels, which will help to identify key impediments and opportunities to enhance policy coherence across sectors. However, current research on SDGs causal interactions at sub-national level remains limited. This study constructed causal networks of SDGs in China and its 31 provinces from 2000 to 2020 applying Multi-spatial Convergence Cross Mapping (MCCM) and network analysis methods, analyzed the main causal features of China’s SDGs in synergy/trade-off effects and their spatial differences. The results showed that, from 2000 to 2020, causality of SDGs exhibited a ratio of 5:2 in synergistic and trade-off effects, establishing a robust foundation for SDGs implementation. In 28 provinces, the main causality in synergy involved SDG4 and SDG17, the bidirectional causality between them was the key causal feature in 18 provinces. The main causal pair in trade-off across 13 provinces involved SDG12 and SDG15, indicating that trade-off causality between resource use, ecological protection and other SDGs remained a major challenge for achieving SDGs. Meanwhile, neighboring provinces exhibited similar loop characteristics, and prioritizing high-frequency indicators including SDG4.c.1, SDG17.8.1, SDG4.2.2, SDG9.c.1, SDG4.a.1, and SDG11.7.1 within synergistic loops was key for SDGs development. This study provides a comprehensive insight for future China and its administrative region priorities and is significant for promoting policy coherence and SDG system coordination.