- 1School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
- 2Beijing Laboratory of Environmental Frontier Technologies, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
- 3Harvard–China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
China's civil aviation transportation is expected to become the world’s largest aviation market soon. However, synergistically reducing CO2 and pollutants in aviation presents significant challenges, making it one of the most difficult sectors for future emission reductions. To assess the environmental impacts of the growing aviation market in China, this study aims to outline the future spatial patterns of aviation pollutant emissions in China by 2035 based on a localized bottom-up analysis, incorporating planned airport infrastructure, projected demand growth in city pairs, fleet expansion, and technological composition. Two methodologies are used, a random-forest regression model to predict air route passenger flow by 2035, and a spatial pollutant emission approach performed bottom-up that considers improving aircraft and engine technology, optimizing operations and using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Then, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM) modeling system (v5.3.2) is utilized to stimulate the physical and chemical processes aviation-derived air pollutants of the expected scenario in 2030. Our findings highlight the increasing impact of aviation in China, particularly in cities with dual airports, and reveal the challenges of accelerating coordinated reductions in CO2 and air pollutants within the aviation sector. Despite most new airports being constructed in Southwest China, the disparity in spatial pollutant distribution will continue to grow due to increased aviation activities at central hubs in Eastern China. The proportion of aviation-attributed near ground PM2.5 and O3 in total concentrations would have increased from 2.9% and 9.4% to 6.7% and 14.2% in developed regions from 2017 to 2030 as other sectors progress towards decarbonization and pollutant emissions reduction. Stricter and more diversified control measures are needed to help the aviation industry reduce pollutant emissions while achieving decarbonization.
How to cite: Yan, J., Wu, R., Zhang, J., Zhang, S., and Wu, Y.: Future Spatial Patterns and Environmental Impacts of Aviation Emissions in China by 2035, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7575, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7575, 2025.
