Enhancing Timeliness of EWS with new technology: A case study in Northeast China

The "Early Warning for All" initiative, launched at COP27, aims to ensure global coverage by early warning systems (EWS) for hazardous weather, water, or climate events by 2027. This study evaluates the effectiveness of EWS in Northeast China focusing on six meteorological disasters: heavy rain, cold waves, high winds, high temperatures, hail, and frost over the past five years.

We analyze the evolution in the timeliness and content of early warnings, correlating these with the integration of new technologies. Our findings reveal significant variations in EWS performance across different disaster types and geographical areas. For instance, while some systems provide warnings with substantial lead times for events like heavy rain and cold waves, others, particularly for hail and frost, show less temporal advance or accuracy.

This research highlights the disparity between scientific advancements in EWS and their practical application, underscoring the need for improved communication and decision-making processes within the warning system framework. We discuss the reasons for these imbalances, such as technological adoption rates, regional infrastructure variances, and policy implementation challenges.

Our study suggests that while technological capabilities have advanced, the translation into operational EWS effectiveness remains uneven. We propose several strategies to bridge the gap between scientific potential and operational reality, aiming to enhance the third pillar of EWS—effective communication and decision-making. These insights are crucial for refining EWS to better protect communities from natural hazards, contributing to the global aim of universal early warning coverage by 2027.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Meteorological Disasters, Northeast China, Timeliness, Accuracy, Communication Strategies, Decision-Making, Climate Resilience