Mexico City Sinkhole Formation: Development of a Conceptual Model in a Non-Karst Environment

Mexico City, located in a lacustrine basin on highly heterogeneous terrain, presents a complex and unique scenario for studying sinkhole formation. Unlike karst regions, where these phenomena are typically associated with natural rock dissolution processes, in Mexico City they are linked to a specific interaction of geological, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors. Between 2017 and 2020, over 500 sinkholes were recorded, significantly impacting infrastructure and public safety. This context is particularly significant due to the high population density, extensive urbanization, and historical overuse of water resources, which aggravate land subsidence and soil collapse incidents. Previous studies, such as those by Ramírez Serrato et al. (2024) and García Cruzado et al. (2023), have explored the relationship between variables like subsurface composition, groundwater extraction, and infrastructure vulnerability. Ramírez Serrato and collaborators (2024) performed a statistical analysis to identify the degree of association of the conditioning factors to the presence of subsidence in the city through a Chi-square test and a regression analysis, with which they were able to perform a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for mapping susceptibility in urban areas. While García Cruzado and collaborators (2023) analyzed the influence of different conditioning factors of the phenomenon for susceptibility mapping using the Weights of Evidence method, with which they were able to analyze the contribution of the main factors to the formation of the phenomenon, offering in both works valuable tools for the assessing the risk related to sinkholes. The objective of this study is to propose a conceptual model that characterizes the dynamics of the criteria involved in sinkhole formation in Mexico City. It integrates data from the Mexico City Risk Atlas along with the aforementioned analytical results. The study presents a model that organizes and visualizes the interaction between geological and anthropogenic factors, emphasizing the influence of water extraction, soil type, and urban pressures. This research aims not only to advance the understanding of the causes and dynamics of sinkholes but also to provide a useful tool for urban planning and risk mitigation, with the potential to safeguard Mexico City's infrastructure and population from this growing hazard.

 

Ramírez-Serrato, N. L., García-Cruzado, S. A., Herrera, G. S., Yépez-Rincón, F. D., & Villarreal, S. (2024). Assessing the relationship between contributing factors and sinkhole occurrence in Mexico City. Geomatics Natural Hazards And Risk, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2023.2296377

García Cruzado, S., Ramírez Serrato, N., and Herrera Zamarrón, G.: Mapping of Mexico City's susceptibility to sinkhole formation using the weights of evidence method, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10935, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10935, 2023.