- 1Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China (zhoujw21@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, shiw20@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, yhh21@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn, qiaochenbnu@gmail.com, yongluo@tsinghua.edu.cn)
- 2College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China (jbh@ucas.ac.cn)
- 3School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China (yyao@nuist.edu.cn)
The Central Asian region, characterized by its arid climate and fragile ecological environment, is highly sensitive to climate change, necessitating focused research on its future climate. This study utilizes two global climate model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR and BCC-CSM2-MR) simulations from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to drive the regional climate model WRF for high-resolution (25 km) simulations within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program. These simulations target future climate changes under both low and high emission scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. The historical simulation (1995-2014) was evaluated, indicating that the WRF models can reproduce better spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and precipitation in Central Asia compared to global models, with reduced mean biases and more detailed topography insights especially in mountainous regions. Future climate projections (2021-2060) indicate a significant temperature increase across Central Asia, correlating with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The most pronounced warming is expected in north-central Kazakhstan. Under SSP1-2.6, the average annual temperature rise for 2041-2060 is projected at 1.37°C, and under SSP5-8.5, it could reach 2.36°C. Winter warming is most rapid, especially in the western regions, while the eastern high-altitude areas experience less warming. In contrast, summer temperatures show an opposite trend. The study also predicts an overall increase in average annual precipitation, with the most significant rise in the southwestern region and a decrease in the northeast. Both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project a precipitation increase of about 0.50 mm/month (3-4%) during 2041-2060. Precipitation is expected to rise in winter and spring, but decrease in summer, with winter seeing an increase across Central Asia and summer showing a varied pattern of increase in the west and decrease in the east.
How to cite: Zhou, J., Huang, J., Yao, Y., Shi, W., Yuan, H., Qiao, C., and Luo, Y.: Near and Mid-Term Climate Change in Central Asia in the 21st Century from High-Resolution WRF Simulations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-7870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7870, 2025.
