A first view of the EO-driven digital twin for ice sheets

The response of ice sheets and shelves to climate change profoundly influences global human activities, ecosystems, and sea-level rise. As such, ice sheets are a vital component of the Earth system, making them a cornerstone for developing a future Digital Twin Earth. Here, we present the initial steps toward an Earth Observation (EO)-driven Digital Twin Component (DTC) for Ice Sheets, marking an effort to understand and predict the behaviour of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic ice shelves under user-defined “what-if” scenarios.

To meet the diverse needs of stakeholders, DTC Ice Sheets will adopt a modular design comprising 10 Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) and Data Science modules. All targeted four initial use cases that will drive the development of DTC Ice sheets. These initial use cases are: (1) Greenland Hydropower Potential: By modelling and monitoring ice sheet hydrology and meltwater runoff, the DTC ice sheets will evaluate Greenland’s renewable energy opportunities and provide actionable insights for sustainable hydropower development. (2) EU Sea Level Response Fingerprint: The DTC Ice Sheets will deliver region-specific insights into how ice sheet mass loss will contribute to global sea level rise, focusing on the implications for coastal infrastructure across Europe. (3) State and Fate of Antarctic Ice Shelves: Through detailed stability analysis, the DTC Ice Sheets will investigate the vulnerability of Antarctic ice shelves to climatic and oceanic changes, shedding light on their role in regulating ice sheet mass loss and global sea level. (4) Enhanced Surface Climate: Leveraging EO data and climatology, the DTC Ice Sheets will improve understanding of surface climate interactions, advancing predictions of feedback loops between ice sheets, the atmosphere, and the ocean.

The DTC Ice sheet implementation on the DestinE Core Service Platform (DESP) will consist of interconnected modules to serve the use cases. Still, it will also, when fully implemented, provide a holistic view of an ice sheet digital twin. Hence, DTC Ice Sheets aims to provide high-resolution insights into ice sheets' past, present, and future states, align with stakeholders, and foster interdisciplinary collaboration by interfacing with other thematic Digital Twin Earth systems, such as ocean and coastal processes. The DTC ice sheets will empower stakeholders to explore What-if scenarios to address climate change's impacts and feedback mechanisms. All are found in current state-of-the-art EO data of ice sheets.