Impact of extreme high temperature on future photovoltaic potential over East Asia

The increasing frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures anticipated in the future are likely to introduce greater uncertainty and complexity in the development of renewable energy policies. Countries in East Asia, located in the mid-latitudes, are particularly vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions intensified by global warming. Consequently, it is essential to assess recent trends in PVpot (Photovoltaic power potential) and project future changes under scenarios of extremely high temperatures, as temperature plays a critical role in determining solar panel efficiency. This study evaluates the impact of the increasing frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures driven by global warming on current PVpot, utilizing high-resolution regional climate models over the East Asian domain.

Over the past 44 years, the PVpot associated with extremely high temperature days across East Asia has been consistently higher than the summer mean across all regions. Recent changes in PVpot for extremely high temperature days have shown increases in Korea, central China, southern China, and Japan, whereas no significant changes have been observed in the PV hotspot areas. However, the recent rise in the mean temperature of extremely high temperature days has contributed to a reduction in the proportion of these days occurring during high PVpot conditions across East Asia.

Future projections indicate that the East Asia-averaged summer mean PVpot and PVpot for extremely high-temperature days will decline under all scenarios and future periods. These decreases are expected to intensify toward the late 21st century, with a more pronounced reduction under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. Notably, by the mid-and late 21st century, the PVpot for extremely high temperature days is projected to decline significantly in hotspot areas, particularly in northern China and southern Mongolia.