Long-term Impacts of 1.5 °C Global Climate Pledges on China's Land Systems

Global warming is a critical global challenge, and at the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in 2021, nations committed to limiting the global temperature rise to within 1.5°C by 2100. As a signatory, China has introduced ambitious climate targets, including carbon peaking and neutrality goals, which will significantly influence its land system changes. This study, focusing on China, integrates data from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) with an enhanced CLUMondo model to simulate land system changes under two scenarios: a 1.5°C warming scenario and a reference scenario without updated emissions measures. The results show high simulation accuracy and highlight that, under the 1.5°C scenario, ecosystems improve, with shrubland, wetland, and forest areas projected to grow significantly, especially in southern and coastal regions. However, cropland is expected to decrease, with up to 35% converted to wetlands and forests by 2100, particularly in key grain-producing regions, raising food security concerns. These findings underscore the profound impacts of 1.5°C climate pledges on China’s land systems, offering crucial insights for climate risk mitigation and sustainable development.