Understanding the Psychological Impacts of Flooding: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach from the 2021 German Floods

Floods, as one of the most devastating natural disasters, have far-reaching impacts on property, safety, and mental health. This study employs Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore the pathways linking flood experiences to psychological distress, focusing on mediating factors such as property loss, recovery efforts, and socioeconomic conditions. Drawing on data from the 2021 floods in Germany, the analysis provides insights into how direct and indirect factors interact to shape mental health outcomes.

Flood experience is conceptualized as direct exposure to flood hazards, including water depth, flow velocity, and contamination. These factors collectively capture the intensity and severity of the flood event. Key findings reveal that flood experience significantly predicts property loss (Estimate = 0.254, p < 0.001) and direct impacts such as self-injury, family injury, and uncertainty about the safety or whereabouts of family members or close friends during flood, which, in turn, exacerbate psychological effects. These direct impacts, alongside property loss, drive psychological impacts, measured through post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening and ongoing mental health effects, including persistent thoughts about the event and whether it continues to affect individuals' daily lives (Estimate = 2.227, p = 0.006). Socioeconomic factors, such as income and property ownership, influence recovery efforts, which mitigate psychological distress (Estimate = 0.294, p < 0.001). While recovery efforts mitigate distress (Estimate = 0.294, p < 0.001), property loss remains a substantial stressor. The total indirect effect of flood experience on psychological burden (Estimate = 0.304, p = 0.002) underscores the cumulative impact of material loss, immediate threats, and recovery challenges.

The model achieves strong fit indices (χ²/df = 2.15, RMSEA = 0.048, CFI = 0.925), validating its conceptual framework. These findings emphasize the critical role of flood experience in shaping mental health outcomes and the need for holistic disaster response strategies that address immediate impacts and foster long-term psychological recovery. By emphasizing both direct and cascading effects, this study informs policies aimed at enhancing resilience and mental health support in flood-prone areas.