How do disruptive events influence risk perception and preparedness towards natural hazards? An empirical study in Leverkusen, Germany

The floods that hit wide parts of Central Europe in July 2021 demonstrate the impact that extreme precipitation events can have on our continent. Heavy continuous rainfall from 12^th to 15^th of July 2021, caused by low-pressure system "Bernd", resulted in widespread flooding. In Germany, the federal states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia were particularly affected, experiencing the most fatalities and material damage. The rapid surge of rivers and creeks in these areas overwhelmed residents and authorities. After the flood, criticisms arose over inadequate crisis management and early warning systems. This raises the question of the extent to which the population was prepared for such an event and what lessons were learned to be better prepared for future climate-related hazards.

This research focuses on the question of how the experience of a highly disruptive disaster, such as the 2021 floods, affects the population's risk perception towards multiple natural hazards. Further, it assesses if severe affectedness and experiences with natural hazards trigger better preparedness and behavioural knowledge. To answer these questions, an online survey (n= >282) assesses risk perception and preparedness towards natural hazards. The survey was spread in Opladen and Schlebusch, two districts of the city of Leverkusen that were affected by the 2021 flood. Data from the survey underwent statistical analysis, including Pearson Correlation and linear regression.

Early results show that risk perception is highest for heavy rainfall, followed by river floods in both districts. However, the perception of heatwaves and drought differs in the two study areas. In Opladen, where the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is more pronounced, the risk of heat and drought is perceived more strongly compared to Schlebusch. We also analysed how the 2021 flood affected people's perception of natural hazard risk. Results reveal that more than 75% of respondents in Opladen and more than 60% of respondents in Schlebusch reported an altered risk perception after the 2021 floods. Before this event, the risk perception towards extreme precipitation and river flooding was notably lower. Of all natural hazards mentioned in the questionnaire, heat was perceived as the greatest threat in Opladen, while in Schlebusch it was storms.

The findings of this study will be used in the BMBF project Co-Site to design risk communication strategies and workshops aimed at enhancing the public’s preparedness for natural hazards. Understanding people’s risk perception and preparedness for natural hazards can help identify training needs for better preparedness and foster appropriate communication about disaster risk.

Keywords: Risk Perception, Natural Hazards, Preparedness, Germany