Future changes of ENSO precipitation and temperature teleconnections over tropics and subtropics.

The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of inter-annual climate variability, driven by ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific that alternate between the warm (El-Niño) and cold (La-Niña) phases over a 3-7 year cycle. With increasing greenhouse gases ENSO teleconnections are projected to change in future global warming scenarios. Land surface temperature and precipitation teleconnections are projected to change over more than 50% of global land regions by the end of the 21^st century.Most land regions show a significant amplification of the teleconnection. This presentation will examine how the teleconnections are projected to change over the tropics and subtropics and how dynamic and thermodynamic components contribute to these changes.

This will lead into future work using a linear baroclinic model to improve the understanding of changes in dynamical ENSO teleconnection processes over the tropics and subtropics. For example, how does the projected eastward shift of the equatorial Pacific ENSO precipitation anomalies influence the changes in precipitation and temperature teleconnections over tropical and sub-tropical land regions?