Six decades of global crop yield increase and cropland expansion from 1960 to 2020

Population growth, evolving consumption preferences, technological advancements, globalized trade, and environmental factors have all significantly influenced global agriculture. The rising demand for agricultural commodities has driven increased production through both land area expansion and intensification (reflected as higher yields). However, the connections between global agricultural expansion and intensification remain unclear.

Using a data-driven approach to map past cropland use and productivity changes on a global scale, we aim to (1) quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of global changes in cropland systems, particularly focusing on area expansion and contraction, as well as yield increases and decreases over the last six decades (1960-2020), and (2) explore the relationship between cropland intensification and expansion across different countries and regions.

Our findings reveal that high-income countries have followed a trajectory of yield increases and land contraction on croplands, aligning with the concept of land sparing and influenced by policy. In contrast, low-income countries have seen less yield increase but substantial cropland area expansion over time. Notably, emerging countries in tropical regions (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and Malaysia) have experienced both the highest crop yield increases and cropland expansion rates. This suggests potential knock-on effects of yield increases in high-profit crops such as soybean, oil palm, and sugar cane, primarily used for exports. These yield increases are linked to and likely triggered significant agricultural expansion into natural ecosystems. We find that the increase in tree crops is the underlying cause of more than half of the global deforestation for cropland expansion.

Overall, we demonstrate how the relationship between yield increases and cropland expansion varies by region and crop type. This relationship is also likely influenced to varying degrees by political intervention, global trade, technology transfer, and climate change.