Climate Change Impacts on Viticulture in Canada

Canada's viticultural growing climates are changing and redefining the potential of the Canadian wine industry. Growing seasons are evolving, as observed through the changing trends of important variables, such as near-surface temperature and seasonal precipitation. Using open access NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data available in Google Earth Engine, this research investigated the trend evolution of key viticultural variables, near-surface temperature (minimum, average, maximum) and seasonal precipitation, across various temporal timespans within the primary Canadian wine-producing provinces of Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Nova Scotia between 1994-2100. In addition, two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP245 and SSP585, were used to help build an understanding of how the key viticultural variables of interest may change in the near-term (2015-2050) and the long-term (2051-2100). Statistically significant near-surface temperature increases were demonstrated across all wine-growing provinces alongside seasonal precipitation increases over the growing season. Temperature increases can have an impact on the quality of wine produced as well as the type of grape variety used, which could be beneficial to Canadian wine producers. The Canadian wine industry is typically dominated by grape varieties reflective of cooler growing climates. Increasing temperatures, especially over the growing season, may allow for the utilization of grape varieties found in other wine-growing areas with warmer climates, like southern Europe. However, the increasing frequency of extreme events, like rainstorms, droughts, and heat waves, will present barriers to the potential growth of the Canadian wine industry.