Building resilience in Mediterranean agriculture through participatory approaches: an evaluation of climate adaptation strategies in the Arroyo de la Balisa Sub-basin (Segovia, Spain)

The Mediterranean region faces critical water scarcity issues exacerbated by climate change, posing significant threats to agricultural sustainability and food security. Adaptive strategies for agriculture are vital to cope with these challenges and ensure long-term resilience. This research focuses on the prioritization and socio-economic evaluation of adaptation measures in the Arroyo de la Balisa sub-basin (SCAB), a representative case study in the Duero River Basin, in Segovia (Spain).

For the prioritization process, a participatory multicriteria approach was used, in which 41 stakeholders representing public administration, agronomic engineering companies, farmers, ranchers, environmentalists and experts, ranked 14 adaptive measures under current and future climatic scenarios, based on four criteria: effectiveness, economic benefit, environmental benefit and ease of implementation. Among the measures considered, the modernization and optimization of irrigation systems was valued as the top strategy for climate change adaptation, followed by the introduction of more resilient crops and several Common Agricultural Policy 2023-2027 eco-schemes, such as crop rotation or no-till farming. These adaptive measures were particularly well-valued for the future scenario, marked by increased evapotranspiration and reduced rainfall. In contrast, other measures requiring significant infrastructure investment, such as transitioning rainfed areas to irrigation, were ranked lower under future scenarios due to anticipated water scarcity.

In parallel, a structured survey targeting 150 local farmers and ranchers is being conducted to assess the socio-economic impacts of implementing these prioritized measures in the SCAB, focusing on potential variations in production costs, income and environmental externalities. The ongoing analysis aims to complement the prioritization results, offering a more comprehensive understanding of the viability of these measures, taking into account economic, social, environmental and institutional dimensions.

The preliminary findings of this research highlight the importance of integrating advanced technologies with sustainable agricultural practices to enhance water use efficiency and mitigate climate risks. Furthermore, the participatory approach employed in this study ensures the relevance and local acceptance of the proposed adaptation measures, fostering their practical implementation. By aligning these technical solutions with stakeholder priorities, this work drives the adoption of effective and sustainable agricultural adaptive strategies. Through this approach, it aims to inform agricultural policies that enhance resilience to climate change, contributing to the implementation of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) 2021-2030.