Climate Risk Analysis for Marmara Region, Türkiye

Assessing climate risk due to climate change for the present and future periods has been the focus of both academic and applied research in recent years, reflecting its critical importance. In this study, we evaluated climate risks for the Marmara Region in northwestern Türkiye by integrating high-resolution climate projections with socio-economic data, aiming to inform and support regional climate policies.

To achieve this, we generated climate projections at a 0.025° x 0.025° resolution using the convection-permitting COSMO-CLM model, driven by EC-Earth3-Veg from CMIP6. These projections cover both the reference period (1995–2014) and a future period (2050–2059) under the SSP3-7.0 scenario) for a broader western part of Türkiye. The Marmara Region was selected as a focal area due to its vital economic significance, its diverse and densely populated urban centers, and its extensive agricultural areas. This approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on a region with critical socio-economic importance, providing actionable guidance to inform policy development and adaptation strategies.

We conducted a comprehensive climate risk assessment by integrating hazard data with components of sensitivity, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity components, which were derived from reliable socio-economic datasets provided by institutions such as the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Turkish State Meteorological Service. For the weighting phase, we employed multiple methodologies, including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and variance-based distribution methods, to investigate their respective contributions to the final risk evaluation.

Preliminary findings reveal city-level climate risks for both the present and future periods, offering critical insights for key vulnerabilities and areas of concern. These results provide essential guidance for regional policymakers, enabling the identification of specific risk hotspots and developing targeted strategies that address the region-specific challenges. These results serve as a foundation for developing targeted strategies to mitigate climate risks, strengthening resilience, and enhance adaptation capacity in the Marmara Region.