Climate Change and Drought in Jordan: A Comprehensive Analysis Using CORDEX Regional Climate Model Simulations

Drought is a pervasive and destructive natural hazard with far-reaching impacts on various sectors that could threaten human lives. For effective mitigation and management, especially under global warming conditions, reliable means of assessing droughts are vitally important for precise monitoring and assessment. This study examines the impact of climate change on drought conditions in Jordan, a region prone to water scarcity and climate-related vulnerabilities. First, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of drought simulation capabilities using a COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) multi-domain set consisting of 21 model simulations from three domains: Africa (AFR), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and South Asia (WAS). Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which accounts for both precipitation and temperature, we assess the models' performance against historical data (1976-2005) from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. This validation identifies a subset of model simulations that reliably generate SPEI values for Jordan. Building on these validated models, we then investigate future drought conditions for the end of the twenty-first century (2070-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Projected changes reveal a significant rise in temperature and a drying tendency, with anticipated reductions in precipitation. Future drought characteristics indicate a substantial increase in severity, with decreasing frequency but increasing duration, and an expanding spatial extent of drought conditions. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for drought monitoring and highlight the urgent need for proactive mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance resilience against the projected intensification of drought conditions in Jordan. These findings serve as an early warning for policymakers and stakeholders to establish efficient plans for addressing the increasing challenges posed by drought in the region and offer insights into evaluating CORDEX models for drought-related studies in other regions.