Assessing Susceptible Areas for Extreme Precipitation in the Middle East: Insights from Historical Data and Their Shifts Under Future Projections

The Middle East, with its diverse and complex geographical and environmental conditions, is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change making it particularly susceptible to extreme precipitation events (EPE). These events often are driven by complex interactions between tropical and extratropical weather systems, seasonal variability, and atmospheric rivers. This study presents a specified probability map of extreme precipitation events across the Middle East region. It highlights areas at a higher risk due to heavy rainfall events and extreme events like flash floods.

The study includes 80 years of ERA5 reanalysis data (1941–2020) and three high-resolution AR6 models under two scenarios: the middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the pessimistic, high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) for the period 2021–2050. By considering the trends of 10 certain indices (EPIs) based on both historical precipitation data and future projections, The findings categorize areas into four distinct risk levels, ranging from no risk to high risk. The statistical significance of EPIs was assessed using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test.

Extreme precipitation events in the Middle East are influenced by various climatic and meteorological factors, and certain areas are more susceptible to these events. The outcome of this analysis show several regions of high risks in north and west part of Iran, northern and central Turkey, central Iraq, and eastern Saudi Arabia. Regions closer to the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf exhibit higher vulnerability, while low-to-medium risk regions involve parts of Syria, Jordan and southern Iran. Countries such as Egypt and southern Saudi Arabia have just a very slight chance of hazard. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the general risk map closely resembles the risk based on historical data. However, in the pessimistic scenarios, most regions that were in the low-to-medium risk classes shift toward high risk.

These findings give confidence to the potential impacts of flooding and infrastructure challenges in regions unfamiliar to dealing with heavy rainfall. This information is important for water management strategies that are part of preparing for climate change impacts, which clearly emphasize the rise in extreme weather patterns across the Middle East. 

Keywords: Precipitation, Extreme events, Heavy rainfall, Risk assessment, Middle East