Daily variability of the Atlantic-European Jet stream over the last 300 years

Extreme weather events in Western and Central Europe such as cold-air outbreaks, heavy precipitation, or heat waves are strongly affected by the Atlantic-European jet stream. Hence, projected changes in the jet stream in a future climate might alter the variability of extremes. It is therefore relevant to study the past variability of the jet. A recent analysis of the Atlantic-European jet based on reconstructions since 1421 showed links with extremes but no evidence for changes in the base state. However, the monthly-to-seasonal scale precluded analysing changes in the distribution, which are relevant for extremes. In this contribution we address the daily variability of the jet stream since 1725 based on observations and compare it with climate model simulations. We use existing historical pressure series from Padova, Uppsala, London and a newly digitised and homogenised series for Berlin. The four locations are well positioned to capture the strength, tilt, and latitude of the Atlantic-European jet. The daily indices explain large fractions of temperature variability and are associated with precipitation extremes, blocks or cyclones. Extreme excursions of the jet on a 1-, 5- or 15-daily scale were associated with extreme weather. However, changes in the mean or in extremes of the jet indices are small.