Projections of Drought Characteristics in Syria under CMIP6 Climate Change Scenario

This study investigates the forecasting of drought characteristics—specifically duration, frequency, and intensity—in Syria, utilizing an ensemble of 13 models from the latest CMIP6 dataset across two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The research compares CMIP6 model outputs with observed climate data from CRU TS v4.06 and ERA 5 for the reference period (1970–2000). Results show that the CMIP6 ensemble effectively replicates key climate parameters such as precipitation and temperature, while also capturing drought characteristics in Syria. However, most models tend to underestimate winter and spring precipitation, though they accurately represent the general decline in seasonal and annual rainfall. Syria's central, eastern, and northeastern regions, characterized by high temperatures and low precipitation, are particularly vulnerable. Future projections indicate significant temperature increases in northern, eastern, and northeastern Syria, with a general decline in precipitation, particularly in the southwest.

Drought projections based on SPI_12 and SPEI_12 indices indicate more severe, prolonged, and intense drought conditions, particularly in Syria’s arid and semi-arid regions. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5–8.5), these areas are at heightened risk of severe droughts, with consistent overestimation of drought intensity and duration due to excessive temperature projections. This highlights the importance of accurate climate data for policymaking to prevent misallocation of resources and inadequate responses to droughts. Projections also suggest that areas previously less vulnerable to droughts, such as Syria's western coastal regions, may experience prolonged dry spells by the end of the 21st century. The findings underscore the need for mitigation strategies, improved water resource management, and adaptive planning to address the growing drought risks in Syria. Enhanced research and more reliable projections for semi-arid regions are critical for future climate adaptation efforts.