EGU25-9145, updated on 14 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9145
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Poster | Tuesday, 29 Apr, 14:00–15:45 (CEST), Display time Tuesday, 29 Apr, 14:00–18:00
 
Hall X2, X2.35
Drastic increase in economic damages caused by a marginal increase in CO2 emissions?
Felix Schaumann1,2
Felix Schaumann
  • 1Universität Hamburg, Department of Economics, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg, Germany (felix.schaumann@uni-hamburg.de)
  • 2Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany (felix.schaumann@mpimet.mpg.de)

When economists estimate the expected economic damages from current-day CO2 emissions, they usually calculate the social cost of carbon – that is, the aggregated damage caused by the emission of an additional ton of CO2. Several cost-benefit integrated assessment models (IAMs) are built to assess this quantity, and among them is the META model. This model is built specifically to assess the effects of tipping points on the social cost of carbon, and it usually operates stochastically. When integrating a deterministic, but small carbon cycle tipping point into the model, however, the social cost of carbon seems to explode: a few gigatons of additional emissions almost double the impact estimates of CO2 emissions! Well, maybe. In fact, these results are a pure artifact of two things: 1) the way in which social cost of carbon estimates are calculated with IAMs; and 2) the way that tipping points are implemented in the META model. And, of course, 3): a lack of initial thoughtfulness on behalf of myself. A thorough look into this issue shows that, as expected, a marginal change in emissions leads to a marginal change in damage estimates. While that result is rather boring, the previous blunder can actually be instructive about the scarcely-known methods used to obtain economic impact estimates of climate change.

How to cite: Schaumann, F.: Drastic increase in economic damages caused by a marginal increase in CO2 emissions?, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-9145, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-9145, 2025.