Mediterranean extreme precipitation events in storm-resolving NextGEMS Earth System Models

This study evaluates the ability of global storm-resolving simulations in reproducing extreme precipitation events (EPEs) over the Mediterranean basin, with a specific focus on the Italian peninsula. We use multi-decadal simulations provided by two coupled models, ICON and IFS-FESOM, both developed under the EU’s Horizon 2020 Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems (NextGEMS) project. Thanks to the synergy between large-scale circulation patterns and km-scale atmospheric dynamics, it is expected that such models better represent precipitation distribution and intensity.

In this work we apply a classification of EPEs based on a set of thermodynamic parameters representative of the regional-scale environmental conditions, following  Grazzini et al. (2020), to classify EPEs over central-northern Italy in three main categories, based on the main uplift mechanism. 

We validate model simulations against the results of Grazzini et al. (2020) based on ArCIS/ERA5 data over central-northern Italy. The analysis is then extended to other Mediterranean regions, providing insights into the models’ capabilities and limitations in capturing extreme events under different large-scale conditions.